ITPV » http://www.piratesfanproshop.com

The Rockies best projected pitcher may not surprise you Francisco Cervelli Jersey , but the best hitter will"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Scaling the RocksPebble ReportRockpileRockies Game ThreadsRockies Fan ExperienceScaling the Rocks6 takeaways from the Rockies’ PECOTA projectionsNew,9commentsThe Rockies best projected pitcher may not surprise you, but the best hitter willMSTShareTweetShareShare6 takeaways from the Rockies’ PECOTA projectionsBaseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections Thursday morning, and that’s grist for our mountainous mill. While the projections aren’t usually too far from what a lot of us expect, they are useful. For one, they add context. I know a great deal and think a lot about the Rockies — not so much the Pirates. Looking at how other teams are projected helps me put what I perceive to be the Rockies’ strengths and weaknesses in a better frame. They also offer hidden insight. The projections are the product of something like a million-plus season simulations. It’s no surprise that new insights emerge from such a large amount of processed information.So, with that in mind, here are a few early takeaways from the 2019 PECOTA projections. The NL is competitive!The Rockies are projected to finish with an 85-77 record. Considering that record projections should be viewed as +/-8 wins as a result of (mis)fortune, that seems about right. It also makes me feel pretty good. That feeling, however, is tempered by looking around the rest of the NL. Only three teams are projected to finish with fewer than 81 wins: The Giants, the Marlins, and the Padres. Getting to 90 wins and a spot in the postseason won’t be easy. At least the NL West is projected to have two out of the three worst team’s in the NL, and the Rockies get to play them a total of 38 times. The Rockies offense is...good?Earlier this offseason, BP released DRC+, which is (at the very least) the most thoroughly adjusted batting statistic that exists. It’s also the first one that park adjusts at the plate appearance level, which is particularly important for understanding Rockies batters. Projected team-level DRC+ in the NL ranges from 86-101, and he Rockies are projected at 100. They are one of seven teams clustered from a projected 98 DRC+ to 101. This may still be because DRC+ appears to be overcorrecting for the Coors Hangover, but it could also mean that the offense isn’t the weakness a lot of us have supposed. The Rockies’ best hitter: Daniel MurphySpeaking of DRC+, Murphy is projected to lead the team with a 136 mark. While it’s just two points better than Nolan Arenado’s projected 134, it’s still noteworthy. If Murphy can come anywhere close to this projection, it’ll be hugely important for the Rockies and their chances. The Rockies’ best pitcher: German M谩rquezThis is entirely believable. PECOTA projects M谩rquez to post 3.0 pitcher wins above replacement player (PWARP), which would actually be a step back from the 4.7 he had in 2018. Don’t let that be a word of discouragement though. M谩rquez’s projection is the sixth best among all NL starters. Here’s another way to think about this projection: Did Kyle Freeland’s amazing 2018 distract us from the real breakout pitcher? At the very least, PECOTA is more convinced of M谩rquez than Freeland (projected to finish with 1.5 PWARP). Don’t forget about Jon GraySo, if M谩rquez is projected to be the Rockies best pitcher, who’s projected to be their second best? That would be Jon Gray http://www.piratesfanproshop.com/authentic-josh-bell-jersey , who has a 2.3 PWARP according to this model. This talk about “which of these three pitchers will be the best and oh yeah they’ll all probably be pretty good anyway” is new and very exciting.But about that pitching depthBP’s visual depth charts show that the Rockies top four pitchers are projected to be about as good as the Dodgers’ top four. Antonio Senzatela even has a good projection (0.9 PWARP) in the five spot. It gets dicey after the top five though. If we still use the Dodgers as a comparison, they have Kenta Maeda (1.4 PWARP) and Julio Ur铆as (1.5) listed as spot starters. The best the Rockies have is a 0.4 PWARP in 53 innings projection for Jeff Hoffman. Which, by the way, would be pretty good. It just doesn’t match the Dodgers’ pitching depth. 鈽?鈽?鈽匴ith these projections out, I am now extremely ready for baseball to start. If you’ve had a chance to dig into the PECOTA projections, what sticks out to you? The 2018 MLB season is rapidly winding to a close, as we are now just six weeks from the start of the postseason. With 16 teams still sporting a winning record and four division titles and four wild-card spots still very much up for grabs, there's still a lot left to be decided between now and the beginning of the playoffs.For now, just remember that these rankings are fluid. Teams rise and fall based on where they were ranked the previous week. If a team keeps winning, it will keep climbing鈥攊t's as simple as that.Here's where all 30 teams stand heading into the rest of this week's action:Updated Rankings1 Boston Red Sox (88-37)2 New York Yankees (78-46)3 Oakland Athletics (74-50)24 Houston Astros (75-49)15 Chicago Cubs (71-52)16 Cleveland Indians (71-52)17 Arizona Diamondbacks (69-56)28 Colorado Rockies (68-56)79 St. Louis Cardinals (68-57)410 Atlanta Braves (68-55)211 Los Angeles Dodgers (67-58)112 Seattle Mariners (71-54)613 Milwaukee Brewers (69-57)214 Philadelphia Phillies (68-56)215 Tampa Bay Rays (63-61)216 Pittsburgh Pirates (63-62)217 Los Angeles Angels (63-63)218 Minnesota Twins (59-64)419 Texas Rangers (56-70)220 Washington Nationals (62-63)421 San Francisco Giants (61-64)322 New York Mets (54-69)223 Cincinnati Reds (55-69)224 Toronto Blue Jays (55-69)125 San Diego Padres (49-78)526 Chicago White Sox (46-77)227 Miami Marlins (50-76)28 Detroit Tigers (51-74)229 Kansas City Royals (38-86)30 Baltimore Orioles (37-87) Teams That ImpressedJack Flaherty has been dominant for the St. Louis Cardinals this month.Colin E. Braley/Associated PressHere come theColorado Rockies.With an 8-1 record in their last nine games, they've gone from 3.5 games back in the wild-card standings to tied with Philadelphia and Milwaukee for the right to host the Wild Card Game.Trevor Story continues to swing a hot bat with a .310/.333/.634 line in August that includes six more home runs to bring his season total to 26. On the mound, Kyle Freeland sports a 2.13 ERA in four starts this month, and he's quietly been one of the NL's best starters all season, going 11-7 with a 2.96 ERA in 25 starts.TheSt. Louis Cardinalsare the other team charging hard on the NL side.With a 14-4 record and plus-43 run differential in August, they've climbed right back into the race for both a wild-card spot and the NL Central title, and series wins against the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers this past week only furthered their cause.Young right-hander Jack Flaherty is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in three starts this month, while Jose Martinez is hitting a robust .400/.450/.527 to bring his season batting line to .308/.369/.468 overall.That being said, no team had a better week than theOakland Athletics.By taking two of three against the Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros, they are just one game back in the AL West standings. And they avenged some early-season struggles against the reigning World Series champions.This Oakland team is the real deal, and while it's going to have its hands full catching up to and holding off the Astros, it's in a great position to secure the second wild-card spot and reach the postseason for the first time since 2014.TheCleveland Indians(5-1),Minnesota Twins(5-1) andChicago White Sox(4-2) were the only other teams to win both of their series last week, as for one brief span, the AL Central didn't look quite so feeble. The only logical explanation is that they read this article from Zachary Rymer and were inspired.Teams That DisappointedMariners manager Scott ServaisLindsey Wasson/Getty ImagesTheSeattle Marinerssuffered series losses to the Athletics and Los Angeles Dodgers last week, and in the process, they slipped further out of the wild-card picture.It's essentially a two-horse race between the A's and M's for the second AL wild-card spot http://www.piratesfanproshop.com/authentic-josh-bell-jersey , which makes a head-to-head series loss that much more painful. The Mariners have been hanging on by a thread all season, as evidenced by their minus-42 run differential, and last week could be the beginning of the slide.On the NL side, theMilwaukee Brewerscontinued their tumble down the rankings with a weekend series loss to the division-rival Cardinals.That gives the Brew Crew a 6-10 record and minus-31 run differential for the month. They are 3.5 games back in the NL Central race and tied for the wild card.ThePittsburgh Pirates(2-4),Washington Nationals(2-5) andSan Francisco Giants(2-4) all saw their slim playoff hopes take a hit with losing weeks.They now have a combined 19.6 percent chance to secure a postseason berth, according to the latest projections from FanGraphs. MVPs of the WeekHitter:Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta BravesStats:13-for-28, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 11 R, 3 SBIt was quite the week for Braves rookie phenom Ronald Acuna.The 20-year-old tied a franchise record by homering in five straight games but then had to exit the team's game on Wednesday when he was seemingly intentionally drilled by Miami Marlins pitcher Jose Urena with a fastball to lead off the game.He returned the next day and showed no ill effects of the beaning with a three-hit game on Saturday, and he's been a force for the contending Braves in the second half.As he looks to chase down Juan Soto and Dereck Rodriguez in the NL Rookie of the Year race, Acuna is hitting .366/.430/.789 with eight home runs in 79 plate appearances in August. Pitcher:Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee BrewersStats:2 GS, 2-0, 13.0 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 KYu Darvish (6/$126M), Jake Arrieta (3/$75M), Alex Cobb (4/$57M), Tyler Chatwood (3/$38M), Mike Minor (3/$28M),Andrew Cashner (2/$16M) and Jason Vargas (2/$16M) all earned more money in free agency than Jhoulys Chacin Corey Dickerson Jersey , who signed a two-year, $15.5 million deal to join the Brewers.Yet, Chacin has been as good or better than all of them:Darvish: 8 GS, 1-3, 4.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIPArrieta:24 GS, 9-8, 3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIPCobb: 23 GS, 4-15, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIPChatwood: 20 GS, 4-6, 5.22 ERA, 1.81 WHIPMinor: 22 GS, 9-6, 4.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIPCashner: 23 GS, 4-10, 4.71 ERA, 1.49 WHIPVargas: 13 GS, 2-8, 8.10 ERA, 1.78 WHIPChacin: 27 GS, 13-4, 3.58 ERA Austin Meadows Jersey , 1.17 WHIPFinding a frontline starter looked like the biggest need for the Brewers when the offseason began, and failing to land any of the marquee names on the open market seemed like a missed opportunity at the time.Now, after two excellent starts last week of six and seven scoreless innings, it's clear the front office made the right decision.Video Highlights of the WeekLongest Home Run:C.J. Cron, Tampa Bay Rays (464 feet)Despite his defensive shortcomings (-2 DRS) and limited on-base skills (.317 OBP, 6.2 BB%), C.J. Cron has been a consistent source of power for the Rays this season.After three straight seasons with 16 home runs, he's already set a career high with 24 long balls this season while posting a 118 wRC+and driving in a team-high 59 runs.The 28-year-old was acquired in February in a trade with the Angels, and with team control through the 2020 season, he's proved to be a cheap middle-of-the-order solution after the front office traded away Evan Longoria, Steven Souza Jr. and Corey Dickerson during the offseason and opted against re-signing Logan Morrison.His 464-foot blast off Red Sox starter David Price was the longest homer of the season by a Rays hitter this season, and he took on the Green Monster and emerged victorious. Best Defensive Play:Harrison Bader, St. Louis CardinalsHarrison Bader has been a stud in the outfield this season.The 24-year-old rookie has been worth 3.9 WAR, and while he's been solid at the plate with a .285/.354/.453 line that includes 23 extra-base hits and 12 stolen bases, it's his defense that is making him a star.This catch is the perfect example of his excellent mix of speed and instincts, as he turned what looked to be a sure double in the gap into a highlight-reel catch.Bader has racked up an impressive 21 DRS with a 19.5 UZR/150 on the season, and while he's been splitting time in center field for much of the year, a Gold Glove Award could be in his future.Must-See Upcoming MatchupCleveland Indians vs. Boston Red Sox (Monday-Thursday)Corey KluberJamie Sabau/Getty ImagesThe Indians have been streaking of late with a 17-6 record in their last 23 games.However, that run of success has come against a string of non-contenders, and the uber-weak AL Central has not provided much of a test for the Tribe all season.A big test awaits this week, though.The Indians will head to Boston to take on the first-place Red Sox for a four-game series, the first time this season the two teams have squared off.And while they'll miss ace Chris Sale鈥攚ho is on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation鈥攊t will still be a good gauge of where the Indians are as they go up against baseball's best team.For the Red Sox, it's a chance to further solidify their standing as the No. 1 team, and it could wind up being an ALCS preview.All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.